Market Report
Current real estate data for every area I serve across Northern and Central Virginia. This report is dated October 6, 2026 and reflects the most recent verified market statistics from FAAR, Bright MLS, Redfin, PWAR, NVAR, Zillow, Long & Foster, Realtor.com, FRED, Houzeo, Movoto, and local news sources. This week's key themes: the market is balanced and two-speed, with prices still rising in the high-demand areas (Fredericksburg city is up 9.0% year over year, Alexandria up 11.2%, Spotsylvania up 3.7%, and Arlington up 2.3%) while Stafford, King George, Culpeper, and Caroline show year-over-year declines; inventory keeps building, with Fairfax County showing 1,786 active listings on Long & Foster's August reading and 3,452 total listings in July 2026 (FRED), Prince William inventory at a five-year June high of 935 homes, and Orange County active listings near 253; and days on market are lengthening in several counties, with King George averaging about 89 days, Culpeper about 62, and Orange near 61. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.03% the week ending September 24 (the latest published reading and the first time above 7% since January 2025). Official September 2026 county reports publish in early to mid-October; the figures below are the most recent verified readings as of October 6, 2026. For my full end-of-summer development roundup across all 11 counties, see my companion report: End-of-Summer 2026 Regional Development Report. For a look at the new developments, restaurants, schools, and attractions transforming our region, see: What's New in Fredericksburg and Beyond: A Late Summer 2026 Guide. For the latest verified housing statistics for Spotsylvania County, Stafford County, and the City of Fredericksburg, see my companion analysis: July 2026 Real Estate Market Update: Spotsylvania, Stafford & Fredericksburg.
Inventory Growth Accelerating
Active inventory keeps building across the region: Fairfax County shows 1,786 active listings on Long & Foster's August 2025 reading with 3,452 total listings in July 2026 (FRED), Prince William inventory hit a five-year June high of 935 homes, and Orange County active listings reached about 253 in August. Buyers have more choices than in recent years.
Days on Market Lengthening
Homes are sitting longer in several counties: King George County averages about 89 days on market, up from 71 a year earlier, Culpeper runs about 62 days, up from 38, Orange County's median is near 61, and Stafford averages 54 days versus 49 a year ago. Strategic pricing and professional marketing matter more than ever for sellers.
A Balanced, Two-Speed Market
Prices are still rising in the high-demand areas, with Fredericksburg up 9.0% year over year, Alexandria up 11.2%, Spotsylvania up 3.7%, and Arlington up 2.3%, while Stafford, King George, Culpeper, and Caroline show year-over-year declines. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.03% the week ending September 24, 2026 (Freddie Mac), the first reading above 7% since January 2025, and affordability pressure is cooling sales volume across the region.
Current Market Snapshot
Data compiled October 6, 2026 from FAAR, Bright MLS, PWAR, NVAR, Redfin, Zillow, Movoto, Realtor.com, Long & Foster, Houzeo, and local sources. This week's notable shifts: the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.03% (Freddie Mac, week ending September 24, the latest published reading), the first time above 7% since January 2025; Fairfax County shows 1,786 active listings on Long & Foster's August reading with 3,452 total listings in July 2026 (FRED); Prince William's June median came in near $600,000 with the highest June inventory in five years; and official September 2026 county reports publish in early to mid-October.
| Area | Median Price | YoY Change | Avg Days on Market | Inventory |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fredericksburg | ~$480K | +9.0% | ~49 days | ~900-980 active (varies) |
| Stafford | $511K (Feb) | -2.7% | 22-54 days | ~429 active (L&F, Jul 2025) |
| Spotsylvania | ~$468K (Oct) | +3.7% | ~48 days | ~639 active (Redfin live) |
| Orange | ~$417K | +0.2% | ~61 days | ~253 active (Aug) |
| Fairfax | ~$755K (L&F, Aug) | +1.0% | ~24-25 days | ~1,786 active (L&F, Aug) |
| Arlington | ~$818K (3-mo avg) | +2.3% | 27-31 days | ~443 active (L&F, Jun 2025) |
| Alexandria | $736.5K | +11.2% | ~40 days | ~344 active (L&F, Sept) |
| King George | ~$482K (Jan) | -7.7% | ~89 days | 23 sold latest month (Redfin) |
| Caroline | ~$340K (Dec) | -10.5% | ~52 days | ~88 active (FAAR, Apr 2025) |
| Culpeper | ~$463K (Oct) | -8.2% | ~62 days | ~110-113 active (varies) |
| Prince William | ~$600K (Jun) | ~Flat | 36-47 days | ~935 active (June); 623 pending |
Fredericksburg
+9.0%Fredericksburg city's median sold price is about $480,000 over the three months ending August 2026, up 9.0% year over year (Redfin), with median days on market near 49, up from 39 a year earlier, and homes selling about 1% above list price with roughly two offers per home. Zillow's average home value for the city is $475,651, up 0.9% year over year, with homes going pending in about 27 days (updated February 28, 2026). FAAR's regional reports describe a market in transition: the November 2025 regional median of $465,000 was flat year over year, and September 2025 marked the first year-over-year price dip in over two years at $462,500, down 2%. Movoto's April 2026 reading showed a $538,000 median sold price with 26 days on market and about 900 active listings. The official September 2026 report publishes in early to mid-October. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Fredericksburg.
Source: Redfin August 2026, Zillow February 2026, FAAR 2025-2026, Movoto April 2026
Stafford
-2.7%Stafford County pricing has cooled from the spring 2025 peak. Redfin's February 2026 county median is $511,000, down 2.7% year over year, with 54 average days on market versus 49 a year earlier and a 100.0% sale-to-list ratio; Realtor.com data (via the Progress-Index) put the February 2026 median at $516,000, down 3.46% year over year, with a 22-day median days on market in April 2026. A local brokerage report published September 22, 2026 (Give Back Team Real Estate) cites an August 2026 median near $545,000, and Long & Foster's July 2025 snapshot showed 429 active listings, up 24% year over year, with 194 homes sold, up 11%. The official September 2026 county report publishes in early to mid-October. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Stafford County.
Source: Redfin February 2026, Realtor.com 2026, Give Back Team Real Estate September 2026, Long & Foster July 2025
Spotsylvania
+3.7%Spotsylvania County's prices remain firm. Redfin's October 2025 county snapshot shows a median of about $468,000, up 3.7% year over year, with median days on market near 48, up from 38 a year earlier, a 99.6% sale-to-list ratio, and about 639 active listings countywide. Realtor.com-derived data put the county median near $472,250 in February 2026 with roughly 29.5 median days on market in April 2026. FAAR's September 2024 county median was $472,000 after a roughly 19% year-over-year spike. The official September 2026 county report publishes in early to mid-October. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Spotsylvania County.
Source: Redfin October 2025, Realtor.com 2026, FAAR
Orange
+0.2%Orange County's median sold price is about $417,000 over the three months ending May 2026, essentially flat year over year (up 0.2%) (Redfin), with median days on market near 61 and recent sales running roughly 1% under list price. Active listings climbed through 2026 to about 253 in August, with sold homes averaging 60 days on market, up from 43 in July, and active listings averaging 78 days (local MLS analysis, Sean Jones Homes). The official September 2026 county report publishes in early to mid-October. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Orange County.
Source: Redfin May 2026, Sean Jones Homes August 2026
Fairfax
+1.0%Fairfax County's median sale price was $755,000 on Long & Foster's August 2025 reading, up 1% year over year, with about 25 days on market and 1,786 active listings, up 3%. Redfin reports homes selling in about 24 days with a 99.8% sale-to-list ratio (August 2026, up 0.2 point year over year), and Zillow's average home value is $760,599, up 0.9%. FRED (Realtor.com data) shows the median listing price at $789,450 in June 2026, down 3.56% year over year on the April reading, with 1,663 active listings in November 2025 and 3,452 total listings in July 2026; the December 2025 median sold price was $725,000, up 3.6% year over year. The official September 2026 county report publishes in mid-October (NVAR). Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Fairfax County.
Source: Long & Foster August 2025, Redfin August 2026, Zillow August 2026, FRED/Realtor.com 2026
Arlington
+2.3%Arlington County's median is about $818,000 over the three months ending May 2026, up 2.3% year over year (Redfin), with 27 days on market, unchanged year over year, and the city-level median up 7.7% for the three months ending July 2026. Houzeo (2026) puts the Arlington median near $815,000, essentially flat, with about 31 days on market, a 100.79% sale-to-list ratio, and roughly 2.1 months of supply. Long & Foster's June 2025 report showed a $745,000 median, down 8% year over year, with 30 days on market and 443 active listings, up 18%. The official September 2026 report publishes in mid-October (NVAR). Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Arlington.
Source: Redfin 2026, Houzeo 2026, Long & Foster June 2025
Alexandria
+11.2%Alexandria's median sold price is about $736,450 over the three months ending August 2026, up 11.2% year over year (Redfin), with a median of about 40 days to go pending and a 99.9% sale-to-list ratio (June 2026, up 0.07 point year over year). Long & Foster's June 2026 report shows a $760,000 median sale price, up 7% from May, with a 10-day median days on market for current inventory; its September 2025 snapshot counted 344 active listings and 2.0 months of supply, up from 1.5 months a year earlier. The official September 2026 report publishes in mid-October (NVAR). Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Alexandria.
Source: Redfin August 2026, Long & Foster June 2026 and September 2025
King George
-7.7%King George County's median sale price was $482,000 on Redfin's January 2026 reading, down 7.7% year over year, with 89 average days on market, up from 71 a year earlier, a 100.0% sale-to-list ratio, and 23 homes sold in the most recent month. Zillow's average home value is $472,297, up 2.4% year over year, with homes going pending in about 14 days (updated April 30, 2026), and FAAR's 2024 annual county median was $465,000, among the highest in the region. The official September 2026 county report publishes in early to mid-October. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in King George County.
Source: Redfin January 2026, Zillow April 2026, FAAR 2024
Caroline
-10.5%Caroline County's small sales base swings month to month: Redfin's December 2025 reading shows a $340,000 median sale price, down 10.5% year over year, with about 52 days on market (versus 54 a year earlier) and 39 homes sold. FAAR's March 2026 county report recorded 29 closed sales, down 29.3% year over year, with a year-to-date total of 75, down 23.5%; FAAR's April 2025 report showed a $369,000 median, up 2.8%, with 59 median days on market and about 88 active listings. The official September 2026 county report publishes in early to mid-October. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Caroline County.
Source: Redfin December 2025, FAAR March 2026 and April 2025
Culpeper
-8.2%Culpeper County's median sale price was $463,450 on Redfin's October 2025 reading, down 8.2% year over year, with 62 days on market, up from 38 a year earlier, a 99.5% sale-to-list ratio, and 63 homes sold that month. Realtor.com data for December 2025 shows 47 sales totaling about $21.5 million, and Zillow's average home value for the city of Culpeper is $459,733, up 3.1% year over year (updated May 2026). Active listings have run tight, near 110 to 113 in late 2024 and early 2025. The official September 2026 figures publish in early to mid-October. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Culpeper County.
Source: Redfin October 2025, Realtor.com December 2025, Zillow May 2026
Prince William
~FlatPrince William County's median sold price was $600,000 in June 2026, essentially unchanged month over month and versus June 2025, with a year-to-date median of $580,000, up 2.5% (PWAR). June 2026 posted 663 closed sales, up 18.2% year over year, with 623 pending sales, up 9.1%, active listings at 935, the highest June inventory in five years, and 641 new listings, up 17%. Redfin's February reading showed a $555,000 median with 41 days on market versus 28 a year earlier, and local agents cite 36 to 47 days in early to mid-2026. The official September 2026 county report publishes in mid-October (PWAR). Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Prince William County.
Source: PWAR June 2026, Redfin February 2026
Market data compiled from publicly available sources including FAAR, Bright MLS, PWAR, NVAR, Redfin, Zillow, Movoto, Long & Foster, Bellacasa Partners, and local news outlets. Actual values may vary by neighborhood and property type. Contact me for a personalized market analysis. Explore neighborhoods →
Area-by-Area Breakdown
Each area snapshot is dated October 6, 2026 and reflects the most recent verified data from the sources listed. Fresh data is researched and updated every Monday.
Fredericksburg
Fredericksburg city's median sold price is about $480,000 over the three months ending August 2026, up 9.0% year over year (Redfin), with median days on market near 49, up from 39 a year earlier, and homes selling about 1% above list price with roughly two offers per home. Zillow's average home value for the city is $475,651, up 0.9% year over year, with homes going pending in about 27 days (updated February 28, 2026). FAAR's regional reports describe a market in transition: the November 2025 regional median of $465,000 was flat year over year, and September 2025 marked the first year-over-year price dip in over two years at $462,500, down 2%. Movoto's April 2026 reading showed a $538,000 median sold price with 26 days on market and about 900 active listings. The official September 2026 report publishes in early to mid-October. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Fredericksburg.
Source: Redfin August 2026, Zillow February 2026, FAAR 2025-2026, Movoto April 2026
Stafford
Stafford County pricing has cooled from the spring 2025 peak. Redfin's February 2026 county median is $511,000, down 2.7% year over year, with 54 average days on market versus 49 a year earlier and a 100.0% sale-to-list ratio; Realtor.com data (via the Progress-Index) put the February 2026 median at $516,000, down 3.46% year over year, with a 22-day median days on market in April 2026. A local brokerage report published September 22, 2026 (Give Back Team Real Estate) cites an August 2026 median near $545,000, and Long & Foster's July 2025 snapshot showed 429 active listings, up 24% year over year, with 194 homes sold, up 11%. The official September 2026 county report publishes in early to mid-October. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Stafford County.
Source: Redfin February 2026, Realtor.com 2026, Give Back Team Real Estate September 2026, Long & Foster July 2025
Spotsylvania
Spotsylvania County's prices remain firm. Redfin's October 2025 county snapshot shows a median of about $468,000, up 3.7% year over year, with median days on market near 48, up from 38 a year earlier, a 99.6% sale-to-list ratio, and about 639 active listings countywide. Realtor.com-derived data put the county median near $472,250 in February 2026 with roughly 29.5 median days on market in April 2026. FAAR's September 2024 county median was $472,000 after a roughly 19% year-over-year spike. The official September 2026 county report publishes in early to mid-October. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Spotsylvania County.
Source: Redfin October 2025, Realtor.com 2026, FAAR
Orange
Orange County's median sold price is about $417,000 over the three months ending May 2026, essentially flat year over year (up 0.2%) (Redfin), with median days on market near 61 and recent sales running roughly 1% under list price. Active listings climbed through 2026 to about 253 in August, with sold homes averaging 60 days on market, up from 43 in July, and active listings averaging 78 days (local MLS analysis, Sean Jones Homes). The official September 2026 county report publishes in early to mid-October. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Orange County.
Source: Redfin May 2026, Sean Jones Homes August 2026
Fairfax
Fairfax County's median sale price was $755,000 on Long & Foster's August 2025 reading, up 1% year over year, with about 25 days on market and 1,786 active listings, up 3%. Redfin reports homes selling in about 24 days with a 99.8% sale-to-list ratio (August 2026, up 0.2 point year over year), and Zillow's average home value is $760,599, up 0.9%. FRED (Realtor.com data) shows the median listing price at $789,450 in June 2026, down 3.56% year over year on the April reading, with 1,663 active listings in November 2025 and 3,452 total listings in July 2026; the December 2025 median sold price was $725,000, up 3.6% year over year. The official September 2026 county report publishes in mid-October (NVAR). Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Fairfax County.
Source: Long & Foster August 2025, Redfin August 2026, Zillow August 2026, FRED/Realtor.com 2026
Arlington
Arlington County's median is about $818,000 over the three months ending May 2026, up 2.3% year over year (Redfin), with 27 days on market, unchanged year over year, and the city-level median up 7.7% for the three months ending July 2026. Houzeo (2026) puts the Arlington median near $815,000, essentially flat, with about 31 days on market, a 100.79% sale-to-list ratio, and roughly 2.1 months of supply. Long & Foster's June 2025 report showed a $745,000 median, down 8% year over year, with 30 days on market and 443 active listings, up 18%. The official September 2026 report publishes in mid-October (NVAR). Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Arlington.
Source: Redfin 2026, Houzeo 2026, Long & Foster June 2025
Alexandria
Alexandria's median sold price is about $736,450 over the three months ending August 2026, up 11.2% year over year (Redfin), with a median of about 40 days to go pending and a 99.9% sale-to-list ratio (June 2026, up 0.07 point year over year). Long & Foster's June 2026 report shows a $760,000 median sale price, up 7% from May, with a 10-day median days on market for current inventory; its September 2025 snapshot counted 344 active listings and 2.0 months of supply, up from 1.5 months a year earlier. The official September 2026 report publishes in mid-October (NVAR). Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Alexandria.
Source: Redfin August 2026, Long & Foster June 2026 and September 2025
King George
King George County's median sale price was $482,000 on Redfin's January 2026 reading, down 7.7% year over year, with 89 average days on market, up from 71 a year earlier, a 100.0% sale-to-list ratio, and 23 homes sold in the most recent month. Zillow's average home value is $472,297, up 2.4% year over year, with homes going pending in about 14 days (updated April 30, 2026), and FAAR's 2024 annual county median was $465,000, among the highest in the region. The official September 2026 county report publishes in early to mid-October. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in King George County.
Source: Redfin January 2026, Zillow April 2026, FAAR 2024
Caroline
Caroline County's small sales base swings month to month: Redfin's December 2025 reading shows a $340,000 median sale price, down 10.5% year over year, with about 52 days on market (versus 54 a year earlier) and 39 homes sold. FAAR's March 2026 county report recorded 29 closed sales, down 29.3% year over year, with a year-to-date total of 75, down 23.5%; FAAR's April 2025 report showed a $369,000 median, up 2.8%, with 59 median days on market and about 88 active listings. The official September 2026 county report publishes in early to mid-October. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Caroline County.
Source: Redfin December 2025, FAAR March 2026 and April 2025
Culpeper
Culpeper County's median sale price was $463,450 on Redfin's October 2025 reading, down 8.2% year over year, with 62 days on market, up from 38 a year earlier, a 99.5% sale-to-list ratio, and 63 homes sold that month. Realtor.com data for December 2025 shows 47 sales totaling about $21.5 million, and Zillow's average home value for the city of Culpeper is $459,733, up 3.1% year over year (updated May 2026). Active listings have run tight, near 110 to 113 in late 2024 and early 2025. The official September 2026 figures publish in early to mid-October. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Culpeper County.
Source: Redfin October 2025, Realtor.com December 2025, Zillow May 2026
Prince William
Prince William County's median sold price was $600,000 in June 2026, essentially unchanged month over month and versus June 2025, with a year-to-date median of $580,000, up 2.5% (PWAR). June 2026 posted 663 closed sales, up 18.2% year over year, with 623 pending sales, up 9.1%, active listings at 935, the highest June inventory in five years, and 641 new listings, up 17%. Redfin's February reading showed a $555,000 median with 41 days on market versus 28 a year earlier, and local agents cite 36 to 47 days in early to mid-2026. The official September 2026 county report publishes in mid-October (PWAR). Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Prince William County.
Source: PWAR June 2026, Redfin February 2026
For Buyers
This is one of the most balanced markets we have seen in years across most of my service areas. Fairfax County shows 1,786 active listings on Long & Foster's August reading with 3,452 total listings in July 2026 (FRED), Prince William inventory hit a five-year June high of 935 homes with 623 pending, and Orange County active listings reached about 253 in August with days on market near 61. King George's median is down 7.7% year over year with about 89 days on market, Caroline swings month to month on a small base, and Culpeper's median is down 8.2% year over year, giving price-conscious buyers real leverage in those areas. Higher mortgage rates, with the 30-year fixed rate at 7.03% and above 7% for the first time since January 2025, are cooling sales volume across the region. Fredericksburg city is up 9.0% year over year, Alexandria up 11.2%, and Spotsylvania up 3.7%, so the high-demand areas remain firm. Pre-approval and local market knowledge are your strongest advantages: well-priced, well-located homes still attract offers, but the extreme competition of 2021 through 2023 has eased. Reach out for a personalized search strategy tailored to your target county and price range.
For Sellers
The market has shifted toward balance, and strategic pricing from day one is critical. Days on market are trending up in several counties: King George averages about 89 days, up from 71 a year earlier, Culpeper runs about 62 days, up from 38, Orange County's median is near 61, and Stafford averages 54 days versus 49 a year ago. Mortgage rates at 7.03%, with the first reading above 7% since January 2025, are weighing on buyer budgets, yet well-priced homes still sell: Prince William's June median came in at $600,000 with June closed sales up 18.2% year over year, Spotsylvania prices are up 3.7% year over year, and Alexandria homes sell at a median of about 40 days with a 99.9% sale-to-list ratio. Homes priced correctly still sell, but overpriced listings sit, and in King George, Culpeper, and Caroline the market rewards sellers who rely on current comps. My 100-point Marketing Plan and AI-driven buyer targeting are designed to reach the right buyers quickly in this kind of transitioning market. Let's discuss a strategy tailored to your home and timeline.
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